Phoenix's housing market is experiencing a slowdown, despite strong GDP growth in the United States. According to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller report, house prices in Phoenix declined by 1.4% over the year in November, contrasting with the national 1.4% gain. This trend is evident in the 20-city composite, where Chicago reported the highest annual gain at 5.7%, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 3.4%. In contrast, Tampa's house prices continued to fall, dropping 3.9% over the year, marking the 13th month of decline. Other metro areas like Dallas, Denver, Miami, Portland, Las Vegas, Seattle, and Atlanta also reported year-over-year house price declines. The GDP growth story is more positive, with real GDP rising at an annual rate of 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025, up from 3.8% in the second quarter. This growth was felt across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, with Arizona's GDP increasing by 4.6%, just above the national average. The state's real GDP growth ranged from 0.4% in North Dakota to 6.5% in Kansas, with leading contributors being information, finance, and professional services. Arizona's non-farm employment also saw a positive trend, with a 24,600 job increase year-over-year in December, and a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 4.3%. However, labor turnover in Arizona remained relatively stable, with job openings rates decreasing in some states and stable in others. The goods and services trade deficit for November stood at $56.8 billion, up from $29.2 billion in October, with exports falling and imports rising. This economic snapshot highlights the contrasting trends in Phoenix's housing market and the overall positive economic growth in the United States.
